大越期货纯碱早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillating downward [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1181 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. The heavy - quality soda ash price in Shahe remained unchanged at 1135 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 65 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.23% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash was at a historical low, with a profit of - 137.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 88.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash at 38.56 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new capacity in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [28]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Equipment problems led to enterprise production reduction and maintenance, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].