大越期货油脂早报-20251230

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino - US relations have affected US soybean exports and pressured prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. Overall, the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content A. Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and the subsequent production - reduction season will ease supply pressure [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 382, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent period is the production - increase season, so palm oil supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,540, with a basis of 28, indicating a slightly higher spot price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to palm oil, with an expected increase in palm oil supply in the subsequent production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,820, with a basis of 780, indicating a significantly higher spot price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. B. Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning of this term is not clear from the report) [5]. - Negative Factors: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].