芳烃橡胶早报-20251230

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device has a short - stop, the polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, and the basis is stable with the spot processing fee significantly repaired. The PX price has strengthened significantly, but the short - term upward space may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for downstream price pass - through [1]. - For MEG, the domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, the overall inventory accumulation continues, and the pattern is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited. Attention should be paid to the warrant situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Categories PTA - Price and Spread: The average daily trading basis of PTA is 2605(-58). The PX - naphtha spread has strengthened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits have both increased to a relatively high level, while the US - Asian aromatics spread has shrunk [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device increased its load, and Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. Near - end TA partial devices had short - stops, and the start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - Market Outlook: The downstream filament profit has dropped significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. Although the long - term pattern has not completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased [1]. MEG - Price and Spread: The basis for MEG is around - 140 for the 05 contract. The domestic device load has increased, and overseas maintenance plans have increased [1]. - Device Changes: Zheng Dakai's 600,000 - ton device restarted, and Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device increased its load [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic supply is increasing steadily, overseas maintenance is increasing month - on - month, and the overall inventory accumulation continues. The pattern is expected to be weak under new production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread: The spot price is around 6580, and the market basis is around - 100 for the 02 contract [1]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang increased its load, and the start - up rate slightly increased to 96.2%. The production and sales improved month - on - month, and the inventory slightly accumulated [1]. - Market Outlook: Although the domestic demand is entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited due to the relatively low absolute inventory [1]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed to different degrees. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable due to rainfall [1]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price and Spread: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also changed [1]. - Device Changes: No significant device change information is provided [1]. - Market Outlook: No specific market outlook information for styrene and related products is provided [1].