建信期货工业硅日报-20251230

Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Industrial Silicon - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still present a loose pattern, and the unilateral driving force of the fundamentals remains limited. The short - term trading difficulty has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell. The SI2605 contract price was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.68%. The intraday increase once exceeded 2%. The trading volume was 382,415 lots, and the open interest was 221,065 lots, a net decrease of 3,677 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 449 lots, and the short positions had a net decrease of 1,312 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price remained stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,200 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected monthly output in December is about 360,000 tons, and the weekly output is at a seasonal low. The far - month contracts face the pressure of resuming production during the wet season. On the demand side, the weekly operating load rate of silicone monomers was 69.2%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polysilicon remained at 26,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [4]. 2. Market News - On December 29, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5]. - The quotation of polysilicon is rising, but the actual transactions are differentiated. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and it is expected that the spot transaction price of polysilicon will remain stable in the short term [5].