建信期货生猪日报-20251230

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, both supply and demand are increasing. New Year's Day stocking and the potential growth of curing and sausage - making in some regions support the increase in slaughter volume, and the spot price is mainly fluctuating strongly [9] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Although demand elasticity is strong before the Spring Festival, the dual supply pressure from concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release continues to put pressure on contracts 01 and 03. However, compared with the same period last year, the price decline is significant, and the more severe epidemic in the north is relatively beneficial to contract 03 after the festival, with the price mainly fluctuating and rebounding. The progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 29th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative territory. The highest was 11,830 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,670 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 883 lots to 356,236 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 29th, the national average price of三元 pigs was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Supply Side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the digestion speed of large pigs was relatively fast during the previous consumption peak. The number of second - fattening pens has been continuously decreasing. According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [9] - Demand Side: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. There is still an increase in demand for New Year's Day stocking, curing, and sausage - making. Terminal consumer demand continues to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 29th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 201,000 heads, a decrease of 16,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 26,000 heads [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - Actual and Planned Slaughter Volume: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [16] - Small - Weight Pig Slaughter Proportion: In the week of December 25th, the overall slaughter proportion of pigs weighing less than 90 kg was 5.51%, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous week [16] - Breeding Profit and Cost: As of December 25th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 124.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised from purchased piglets was - 255.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [16] - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of December 25th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.70 kg, a decrease of 0.48 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%), an increase of 0.48 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month increase of 0.37%), and an increase of 1.94 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.52%) [16]