建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251230

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The supply pressure of the polyolefin market is increasing as the maintenance loss of devices in December has decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting. The demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The downstream load of PE has mostly declined, and although the PP operation rate is basically stable, factories are mainly digesting their previous inventory and have low willingness to make new purchases. The polyolefin rebound should be treated bearishly under the influence of supply recovery and the inventory digestion cycle in the off - season [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 6453 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (1.02%). The trading volume was 480,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17,464 lots to 509,239 lots. The PP2605 contract closed at 6274 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, with a gain of 0.45%. The open interest decreased by 13,239 lots to 517,500 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - On December 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 590,000 tons. - The PE market prices partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton, in East China 6230 - 6700 yuan/ton, and in South China 6250 - 6650 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 5700 - 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The inflow of external supplies in Shandong increased, the overall market supply was loose, and production enterprises faced pressure in shipping. The propylene quotation continued to decline. Downstream factories made purchases at low prices, and the overall trading improvement was not obvious. - The PP market showed a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were in the range of 5920 - 6060 yuan/ton, in East China 6020 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in South China 6100 - 6330 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]