建信期货豆粕日报-20251230

1. Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 3. Core View - The short - term rebound of domestic soybean meal is mainly due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. Once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may have a supplementary decline, especially for the 05 contract priced by Brazilian soybean costs. Short - term operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support of the outer market [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3099, the closing price was 3092, down 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 38,860 and an open interest change of - 27,028; for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3069, the closing price was 3076, up 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 173,725 and an open interest change of 2,427; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2782, the closing price was 2774, down 8 or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 1,075,551 and an open interest change of 37,990 [6]. - Outer Market: The US soybean futures contract on the outer market had a slight correction, with the main contract close to 1070 cents. The recent rebound was due to reaching a support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending inventory, as well as good export sales. However, the pressure comes from the approaching South American harvest. Some institutions have raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The outer market may test the support at 1050 cents [6]. - Domestic Market: Last week, domestic soybean meal rebounded due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. The overall bull market in commodities has boosted bullish sentiment, but once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may decline. The 05 contract is mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. Short - cycle operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the outer market support [6]. 4.2 Industry News - Brazil: According to Emater, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul is "satisfactory to very good". The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3,180 kg, a significant increase from last season's 2,009 kg. If the weather remains good, the state's soybean production may reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the planned 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - Argentina: As of December 23, the planting rate of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 77%, compared with 65% last week and 88% in the same period last year [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]