建信期货棉花日报-20251230

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased in volume. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 - 31, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes in Kashgar and Northern Xinjiang were different [7]. - Downstream Market: The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price of some conventional products in the inland area had limited increase, and downstream resistance to price hikes was obvious. The sales of the cotton greige cloth market were still dull, and the price was difficult to follow the increase. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7]. - Domestic Market Analysis: In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season increased significantly year - on - year, the overall supply pressure was not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sale smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure was also not strong. It was confirmed that the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season would decrease. Downstream spinning mills' operating rates were stable with a slight decline, and the finished - product inventory pressure was not large. In the short term, the bullish sentiment had been released, and the market would mainly fluctuate with reduced volume approaching the holiday [8] 3. Industry News - As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 6.2036 million tons (27,482,811 bales), an increase of 41,700 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1306 million tons (27,157,031 bales), an increase of 41,500 tons, and the inland inspection volume was 40,800 tons (183,468 bales) [9]. - In 2025, the national cotton sown area was 44.687 million mu, an increase of 2.113 million mu (5.0% year - on - year). The unit yield was 148.6 kg/mu, an increase of 3.8 kg/mu (2.6% year - on - year). The output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons (7.7% year - on - year) [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, various contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates (US dollar against RMB and Indian rupee) [14][16][18]