建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The news factors may cause the prices of coking coal and coke to turn from strong to weak recently. Fundamentally, the loose supply makes the prices lack support. It is expected that the prices may test the low again and then find a direction. It is advisable to close out long positions appropriately, and the downward space brought by the short - term trend may depend on the performance of the surrounding commodity markets. For now, the main strategy is to sell at high prices for hedging or investment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On December 29, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The J2605 contract closed at 1680.5 yuan/ton, down 1.58%, with a trading volume of 18,899 lots and an open interest of 30,959 lots, an increase of 1,123 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.14 billion yuan. The JM2605 contract closed at 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.27%, with a trading volume of 1,052,613 lots and an open interest of 496,064 lots, an increase of 2,318 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.33 billion yuan [5]. - In terms of the black - series futures' open interest on December 29, the long - short comparison of RB2605, HC2605, J2605, JM2605, and I2605 showed a short - dominant situation, with deviation degrees of - 0.93%, - 0.65%, - 0.90%, - 3.39%, and - 0.20% respectively. Only the SS2602 contract had a long - dominant situation, with a deviation degree of 0.59% [6]. - On December 29, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts both showed a dead - cross. The daily MACD red bars of the coke 2605 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days, and those of the coking coal 2605 contract narrowed for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - On December 29, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1370 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Heze, it was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1660 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 6626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, the state - holding enterprises' profit was 2008.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 4956.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1635.53 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; the profit of private enterprises was 1931.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [12]. - From January to November 2025, in the main steel - using industries, the construction industry continued to shrink, while the manufacturing industry grew steadily. The real estate market remained sluggish; the decline in infrastructure investment deepened slightly; the added value of the machinery industry and the export volume of electromechanical products increased; the automobile production continued to grow rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicles; the shipbuilding order backlog of the shipbuilding industry remained at a high level; the production of the three major white - goods in the household appliance industry increased; the decline in container production widened [12]. - On December 25, the Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on the "Notice on Further Improving the Time - of - Use Electricity Price Policy for Industrial and Commercial Users", adjusting the scope of time - of - use electricity price implementation. During the Spring Festival, Labor Day, and National Day, 13:00 - 15:00 is set as the deep - valley period, implementing the deep - valley electricity price [12]. - Hangzhou Thermal Power announced that it plans to sign a three - year "Coal Purchase and Sales Contract" from 2026 to 2028 with Shanghai Yitai Shenpu Energy Co., Ltd., with a total contract volume of 9 million tons, 3 million tons per year, and the contract fulfillment volume is 80% - 120% of the contract quantity [13]. - On December 27, Jining Energy Group held the 2026 Strategic Customer Symposium in Qufu Nishan, with a on - site signing amount of 150 billion yuan, a record high. The participating enterprises cover multiple key fields such as coal, steel, logistics, and port operation [13]. - Recently, the Gansu Provincial Party Committee issued suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, including upgrading traditional industries, promoting the transformation of the coal - chemical industry, accelerating the construction of power - transmission channels, releasing high - quality coal production capacity, and implementing major projects such as the optimization and upgrading of the Lanzhou Railway Hub [13]. - On December 25, Huaihe Energy's annual coal sales volume reached 100.16 million tons, breaking through 100 million tons for the first time [13].