大越期货豆粕早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of domestic soybean meal is affected by the interaction of the US soybean market and domestic demand improvement. At the end of the year, the demand gradually enters the peak season, and the spot price premium supports the market. However, the news is mixed, and the short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. The price of US soybeans is also affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American soybean production prospects [8][9]. - The price of domestic soybeans is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. However, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans suppress the price expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Long factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Short factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. Soybeans - Long factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - Short factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 276, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 95.11% [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of - 16, showing a discount to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 24.85% [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 6. Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US soybean market, domestic demand, and inventory, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Soybeans - The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4120 - 4220. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand, but is suppressed by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production [11].