大越期货菜粕早报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. It is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the pending final result of the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest phase, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has fluctuated accordingly, with a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has remained low [18][20]. - Supply - related: Imported rapeseed arrivals increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume remained zero [23][25][27]. - Demand - related: Aquaculture fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint and Strategy - Fundamental Analysis: The rapeseed meal market has returned to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - Basis Analysis: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is 173, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory Analysis: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, unchanged from last week and down 100% year - on - year, which is bullish [9]. - Price Trend Analysis: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - Position Analysis: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Outlook: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the off - season of domestic supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].