大越期货沥青期货早报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is high, and the demand is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3036 [7][8]. - The factors affecting the asphalt market include supply - side production increases, demand - side sluggishness, cost - side weakening of crude oil support, and inventory accumulation [7][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 3.955 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 951,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 7.1022%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 384.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 655.87 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.47%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [8]. - Basis: On December 29, the spot price in Shandong was 2,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 92 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%; the in - plant inventory was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.07%. Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - Expectation: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3036 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [16][17]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [25][26][27]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [29][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The report presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - Production: The report presents the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report presents the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: The report presents the historical estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The report presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [73][74]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [77][78]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The report presents the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [85][86]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [87]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report presents the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][92]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly production, imports, exports, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [104][105].