工业硅期货早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8615 - 8815 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and module production, with overall demand in continuous recession and cost support remaining stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55320 - 57680 [7][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease compared to the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 303,000 tons (high), organic silicon inventory is 43,900 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,000 tons (high). Social inventory is 555,000 tons (a 0.36% increase), sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons (a 1.61% increase), and major port inventory is 140,000 tons (a 1.45% increase) [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [3]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is expected to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 10.33GW (a 3.18% decrease), and inventory was 216,900 tons (a 0.88% increase). Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for silicon wafers is 45.7GW (a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month); in November, cell production was 55.61GW (a 6.17% decrease), and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW (a 14.21% decrease). Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for cells is 48.72GW (a 12.38% decrease); in November, module production was 46.9GW (a 2.49% decrease), and in December, the expected module production is 39.99GW (a 14.73% decrease). Currently, module production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: On December 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [7]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.99% to 2.30% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 16.67% to 138.48% [15]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month and the next - month contract decreased by 16.67%, and the spread between the next - month and the second - next - month contract increased by 20.00% [15]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9907, a 5.09% increase compared to the previous period [15]. - Organic silicon: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease compared to the previous week. The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%. The daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton. The monthly DMC inventory was 43,900 tons, a 22.02% decrease compared to the previous month [15]. - Aluminum alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 22,400 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase compared to the previous day. The daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 323 yuan/ton, a 5.21% increase compared to the previous day [15]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Production/operating rate: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease compared to the previous week. The weekly operating rates of enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.58%, while those in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% [15]. - Cost - profit: The cost and profit of various types of silicon in different regions remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 1.89% to 5.63% [17]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 19.09% to 37.45% [17]. - Silicon wafers: The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease compared to the previous week [17]. - Cells: The prices of various types of cells remained mostly unchanged. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease compared to the previous week. The monthly photovoltaic cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Modules: The prices of various types of modules remained unchanged. The monthly module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month. The European module inventory was 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week [17].