大越期货燃料油早报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market structure will remain near the current level. The market supply is sufficient recently, and the market demand has slowed down due to the holidays. With the increasing geopolitical risks, it provides short - term support for prices. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate. The FU2603 will operate in the range of 2450 - 2500, and the LU2603 will operate in the range of 2980 - 3030 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will face resistance in 2026 due to poor demand and supply surplus. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range with relatively weak downstream demand. The basis indicates that spot is at a discount to futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 140,000 barrels to 22.559 million barrels in the week of December 17. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. [3] - The previous day's FU and LU futures prices were 2503 and 3023 respectively, and the current values are 2473 and 2984, down 1.20% and 1.29% respectively. The previous day's FU and LU basis were - 1 and 19 respectively, and the current values are - 15 and - 13, down 955.70% and 168.82% respectively [5] - The previous day's prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil and Singapore diesel were 433.00, 460.00, 343.44, 421.50, 317.01 and 588.05 respectively. The current values are 430.00, 455.00, 337.24, 411.08, 311.06 and 584.21 respectively, with decreases ranging from 0.65% to 2.47% [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has been troubled by oversupply in 2025, and similar inflows are expected to increase inventory in 2026. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range, and the downstream demand is relatively weak [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report presents the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [11] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from October 8 to December 17 shows fluctuations. The inventory on December 17 was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels from the previous week [8]