Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that domestic methanol will maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week. The inland methanol downstream has high raw material inventories and mainly conducts rigid - demand procurement. The upstream has few overhauls and maintains a low - inventory norm before the festival. There is no incremental demand in the northwest, and factories still focus on sales. The current prices in the production and sales areas are at the bottom, and traders are cautious about short - selling. It is expected that the inland market will remain in a stalemate this week. In the port area, there are positive policy expectations across the year at the macro level, and the bottom - support from the reduction of overseas arrivals in the fundamental aspect is solid. However, at present, prices lack driving forces and are in a dilemma in terms of trends. It is expected that the port market will oscillate within a range this week. Pay attention to the macro trend and the actual de - stocking node in the ports. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a significant increase in the social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports, and an increase in the available circulating supply in the coastal areas, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyao. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16th, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 695 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CFR price at the main port in China is 251 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), etc. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2161 yuan/ton (unchanged), the number of registered warrants is 6648 (down 100), etc. The basis is - 11 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton), and the import price difference is 31 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton) [8]. - The domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends. The price in Jiangsu has increased by 0.84% to 2150 yuan/ton, the price in Shandong has remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton, the price in Hebei has remained unchanged at 2095 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 5.51% to 1800 yuan/ton, and the price in Fujian has increased by 0.94% to 2155 yuan/ton [9]. Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees, such as 81.54% in the northwest (down 3.55%), 68.71% in Shandong (down 2.39%), etc. [8]. Inventory Data - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 113.16 million tons, a significant increase of 11.32 million tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply of methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 3.93 million tons to 63.44 million tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol is - 73 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol is - 40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 294 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton) [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products of methanol have different trends. The price of formaldehyde has remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl ether has remained unchanged at 3850 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 0.74% to 2720 yuan/ton [32]. - The production profits and operating rates of downstream products also vary. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde is - 122 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 30.98% (up 0.01%); the production profit of dimethyl ether is 575 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 9.79% (up 1.45%); the production profit of acetic acid is 338 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 72.32% (down 1.29%); the production profit of MTO is - 880 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 84.18% (down 2.27%) [37][40][45][50]. 4. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Device Overhaul - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of overhaul or have overhaul plans, involving different regions such as the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul since November 2024, and Qinghai Zhonghao's 600,000 - ton/year natural - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [60]. Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol production devices also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, such as ZPC, which is rumored to have resumed one set (to be verified). Some devices in other countries are operating normally, such as Ar - Razi in Saudi Arabia and Petronas in Malaysia [61]. Olefin Device Operation - The operating conditions of domestic olefin devices vary. Some devices are in normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin device, which stopped for overhaul on March 15, 2025, and is expected to last for 45 days. Some devices are operating stably, such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical's 600,000 - ton/year olefin device [62].
大越期货甲醇早报-20251230
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-30 05:19