过剩格局难改，政策和矿端是关键变量

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - supply situation in the aluminum industry is difficult to change in 2026, and policies and the mine end are the key variables [58] - The main theme of supply and demand in 2026 is still surplus, and the expected price driver mainly depends on changes in the mines. If prices remain low for a long time, attention should be paid to new changes in anti - involution policies. Overall, prices will fluctuate around the cost - end, with short - term news causing only minor disturbances, and are expected to operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pre - review - The short - term rise in aluminum prices was due to the National Development and Reform Commission's article encouraging large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions to improve scale and group levels [5] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect No information related to the macro - economic aspect is provided in the report. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect 3.3.1 Bauxite - In 2026, bauxite production is expected to increase by 1500 - 2200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3 - 4%. The main incremental source is the commissioning of Nimba (formerly GAC), with an expected annual capacity of 1400 tons. However, this may not be enough to make up for the reduction in production at the AXIS mine in 2025 [13][58] - Ore prices may face a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with limited downward space. If the commissioning of Nimba is less than expected, the ore may return to a tight supply situation in the first quarter of 2026 [58] 3.3.2 Alumina - In 2025 - 2026, domestic alumina new production capacity is expected to increase by 1390 tons, and overseas production capacity is expected to increase by 330 tons. The overall smelting capacity will be sufficient [20] - The cost on December 29 was 2800 yuan, with a loss of 140 yuan [52] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is 16,150 yuan/ton, and the profit is close to 6,000 yuan [28] 3.3.4 Aluminum Demand - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, and the investment amount decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. It is difficult to expect good performance in 2026 [40] - In the first 10 months of 2025, air - conditioner production increased by 3% year - on - year, with a production volume of 230.34 million units, and the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, domestic home appliance sales growth is limited, and there are challenges in overseas markets [42] - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 27.69 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. In 2026, traditional automobile consumption will face greater pressure, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles may also slow down [44] 3.4 Market Structure - In terms of capital, the long - position increased by 6,559, and the net long - position was 651,203; the short - position decreased by 9,890, and the net short - position was 387,635. The net position was 31,545, and the long - short difference was 112,305 [56] 3.5 Outlook - The supply side: The industry continues to face losses, and supply pressure remains. Ore prices have strong support due to decreasing supply and increasing demand, and domestic alumina smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1000 tons next year [58] - The demand side: The marginal support on the demand side is limited. Although the current capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum has reached 98% and provides rigid support for alumina demand in the short term, there is limited room for further growth in demand due to the production capacity ceiling [58] - Market forecast: The supply - demand situation in 2026 is still in surplus, and prices will mainly operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58]