广发期货原木期货日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - In the context of low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2601, LG2603, LG2605) all declined compared to December 26th. The LG2601 contract dropped by 0.72% to 760.5 yuan/cubic meter, the LG2603 contract by 0.06% to 776 yuan/cubic meter, and the LG2605 contract by 0.25% to 785 yuan/cubic meter. The 01 - 03 and 01 - 05 spreads also decreased [2]. - The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 730 yuan/cubic meter. The latest round of foreign - market quotes was 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 29th was 7.008 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% increase in length, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port freight volume in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of departing ships was 49, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the previous period [2]. - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 ships carrying New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week) compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3]. Inventory - As of December 26th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. Inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters; inventory in Jiangsu was 52.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.4 million cubic meters (15.30% week - on - week) [2][3]. Demand - As of December 26th, the average daily log out - bound volume was 5.89 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.49 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The average daily out - bound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.55 million cubic meters (16%) to 2.79 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu it decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters (3%) to 2.44 million cubic meters [2][3].