碳酸锂产业日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is steadily increasing while demand is slightly slowing. The raw material prices are rising due to the strong lithium carbonate prices, and smelters are still willing to purchase and stockpile. The supply of lithium salts in China is growing steadily, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious due to high prices. [2] - The option market sentiment is bearish, with the put - call ratio of total positions at 160.08%, a decrease of 44.7769% compared to the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly decreasing. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2,760 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 138,637 lots, down 10,332 lots. The trading volume of the main contract is 511,309 lots, down 1,036 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 19,491 lots/ton, up 1,300 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,580 yuan/ton, down 2,760 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 14,025 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 5,106 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons. The monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons. The monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 38,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 372,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 171,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 153,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 45,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74%. The cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 2,315,000 vehicles, up 1,174,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 61.94%, down 0.08%. The 40 - day average volatility is 58.37%, down 1.64%. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 129,272 contracts, up 19,940 contracts. The total put position is 206,942 contracts, down 17,035 contracts. The put - call ratio of total positions is 160.08%, down 44.7769%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.51%, down 0.0045%. [2] Industry News - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its Baqiancuo salt lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the company focuses on "early production and high - volume production". The company will comprehensively evaluate and plan its Argentine Carlo project based on various factors. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening the fight against administrative monopolies, and intensifying anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. [2] - The National Energy Administration held a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, emphasizing the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities, accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, promoting the planning and construction of high - power charging facilities, and advancing the large - scale application pilot of vehicle - grid interaction. [2] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, wrote that the growth of the auto market in 2026 is complex. The most important factor at the beginning of the year is the late Spring Festival. Coupled with the early implementation of national subsidies, the market is expected to have a positive start in January, but there will be more pressure in February. [2]