合成橡胶产业日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there are few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remains at a high level. Last week, the price center increased slightly, and market transactions were mainly concentrated on low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders cautiously raised prices, but terminal procurement remained weak. The inventory level of production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased partially. - The increase in mainstream supply prices provides bottom - support for the butadiene rubber market price. However, due to sufficient spot resources and the production and sales pressure near the end of the year, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to decline slightly. - In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly last week. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, the finished product inventory is rising. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11150 - 12000 [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 49,563, a decrease of 9,640. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 4,560 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.3; WTI crude oil was $58.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.34. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $745 per ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $534.63 per ton, a decrease of $7.62; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $965 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.61%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.22%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 76.76%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the weekly inventory of manufacturers was 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons; the weekly inventory of traders was 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, an increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, an increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 43.78 days, an increase of 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.86 days, an increase of 0.38 days. - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. In November, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 24, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% [2].