铂钯金期货日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp correction in the external silver price has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at the daily limit again today. The current pullback is a phased cooling of the previous "overheated" market, and the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high-level volatile consolidation phase in the short term. However, the accumulated squeeze pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may still support the prices to have pulse-like rebounds. In the long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply-demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium- and long-term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field is expected to weaken due to over - concentration and the popularization of new energy vehicles, and its supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the current low price of palladium may make it a cost - advantageous choice again. Also, the recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main platinum contract was 589.85 yuan/gram, a decrease of 88.10 yuan; the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 66.85 yuan. The trading volume of the main platinum contract was 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots; the trading volume of the main palladium contract was 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 565.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 72.03 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 408.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 80.00 yuan. The basis of the main platinum contract was - 24.73 yuan/gram, an increase of 16.07 yuan; the basis of the main palladium contract was - 39.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 13.15 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The U.S. dollar index was 98.03, an increase of 0.12; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 13.60, an increase of 0.13 [2] 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, with both saying the talks "made great progress" but without major announcements. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rates were still extremely low, hinting at future interest - rate hikes. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The U.S. FHFA house price index year - on - year (%) on December 30, 2025, 22:00, and the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI on January 1, 2026, 21:45 [2]