瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].