Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short - term. The overall inventory in Qingdao port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, though the overall accumulation rate has narrowed. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease, but due to the unexpected increase in rubber prices, downstream buyers are mainly observing and replenishing, with weak purchasing sentiment and continued inventory accumulation. In terms of demand, last week, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly, with the semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rising slightly month - on - month and the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate falling month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of No. 20 rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber is 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,574 lots, down 3,817 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 35,012 lots, down 3,230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,555 lots, up 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber is - 13,179 lots, up 891 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 97,290 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber in the exchange are 57,556 tons, down 505 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 370 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 462 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.95%, down 1.18 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.05%, up 0.61 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 43.78 days, up 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 46.86 days, up 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.11%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.83%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251230
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-30 09:05