专题报告：顺丁橡胶产业链进出口展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with the expansion of China's butadiene production capacity and the shutdown of multiple overseas ethylene plants, China's net butadiene imports are expected to decline, and China's exports to South Korea will increase while South Korea's exports to China will decrease. China will remain the main destination for butadiene shipments from Europe and the United States [1][7] - China's exports of butadiene rubber are expected to continue growing in 2026. The production of butadiene rubber is expected to further increase due to new production capacity and improved profits, and the demand for synthetic rubber in overseas regions will also rise, which will boost China's exports [1][12][15] - Looking ahead to tire exports in 2026, there are still uncertainties before the final ruling of the EU's anti - dumping investigation. The rush to export semi - steel tires may reappear, and the export of all - steel tires will continue to grow but at a slower pace [1][23][25] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Butadiene: The Global Supply of Butadiene Shifts from the West to the East, and China's Net Butadiene Imports May Decrease - From January to November 2025, China's butadiene imports were 484,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3%, while exports were 24,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81%. The net imports in the first half of the year were 460,300 tons, an 84.8% year - on - year increase [5] - China's butadiene imports consist of fixed long - term contract imports and arbitrage imports. The long - term contract imports are relatively fixed monthly, and the arbitrage imports depend on the opening and closing of the arbitrage windows between China and South Korea, Europe and Asia, and the United States and Asia. In the second half of 2025, the theoretical import arbitrage window was stably open, and imports were expected to increase compared with the first half of the year. The export volume in 2025 decreased sharply [6] - In 2026, with the expansion of China's butadiene production capacity and the shutdown of multiple overseas ethylene plants, China's net butadiene imports are expected to decline. China's exports to South Korea will increase, and South Korea's exports to China will decrease. China will remain the main destination for butadiene shipments from Europe and the United States. In 2025, China's butadiene production capacity increased by 980,000 tons/year, and in 2026, it is planned to increase by 540,000 tons/year, reaching 8.127 million tons/year. South Korea and Europe will see a contraction in ethylene and butadiene production capacity [7] 3.2 Butadiene Rubber: China's Supply of Butadiene Rubber Further Increases, and Exports Are Expected to Continue Growing - From January to November 2025, China's imports and exports of butadiene rubber were 254,000 tons and 287,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and 33.7%. The imports mainly come from Russia, the Middle East, Japan, and South Korea, with Russia accounting for 57.5%. The exports mainly go to Southeast Asia and Morocco, with the main growth coming from Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco [10][11] - In 2026, China's exports of butadiene rubber are expected to continue growing. The production is expected to increase due to new production capacity and improved profits. The production capacity is expected to increase by 190,000 tons/year, reaching 2.312 million tons/year, a 9% year - on - year increase. The demand for synthetic rubber in overseas regions will also rise due to factors such as the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires and the substitution of synthetic rubber for natural rubber [12][15] 3.3 Tires: There Are Uncertainties in the EU's Anti - Dumping Measures, and China's Tire Exports Still Face Resistance - From January to November 2025, China's exports of passenger car tires (mainly semi - steel tires) were 2.9637 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. Exports to Europe decreased for the first time since 2020 due to the EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The production increased by 3.2%, and the inventory was at a high level [21] - From January to November 2025, China's exports of truck and bus tires (mainly all - steel tires) were 4.445 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The main growth came from emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America, while exports to Europe and North America decreased. The production increased by 5.2%, and the inventory decreased [22] - In 2026, there are still uncertainties before the final ruling of the EU's anti - dumping investigation. The rush to export semi - steel tires may reappear, but the intensity may be lower than that in May - July 2025. If the EU imposes high anti - dumping duties on Chinese tires, the annual exports of Chinese passenger car tires will likely decline in 2026, but the long - term growth trend will remain unchanged. The export of all - steel tires will continue to grow but at a slower pace [23][25]