2025-12-30 12:29Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery in supply and demand in 2025, with a forecasted industry-wide turnaround from losses to profitability [3][6]. - Demand is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated 5-6% increase in passenger traffic in 2025, including a 4% rise in domestic routes and over 20% in international routes [6][10]. - The supply side is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 3.7% increase in the fleet size of seven A-share airlines by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [6][19]. - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high of 85%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][22]. - Ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year in 2025 [6][25]. - The industry is anticipated to significantly reduce losses and turn profitable in 2025, with quarterly performance showing improvements in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [6][10]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 6% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) [6][19]. Load Factor and Pricing - The passenger load factor is projected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 85% [6][22]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [6][25]. Profitability Outlook - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant reductions in losses anticipated throughout the year [6]. - Quarterly performance indicates that the first quarter may see limited profit improvement due to high base effects, while the second quarter is expected to show substantial recovery [6].