野村东方国际 _ 全球进入新瓦特时代

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, highlighting significant growth opportunities driven by increasing electricity demand and technological advancements [2]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is entering a super cycle, with substantial growth expected in the U.S. driven by AI data center construction and in Europe due to a resurgence in electricity demand [3][4][6]. - The Middle East is projected to see gas and solar power become the main contributors to future electricity increments [8]. - China is expected to maintain robust investment in its power grid, supporting its manufacturing base [11]. - The U.S. energy storage market is anticipated to experience unprecedented growth by 2026, driven by increasing demand from data centers and other sectors [13][25]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to enter an upward price cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems [39][48]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand - U.S. electricity demand is forecasted to grow significantly, with peak demand predictions for 2030 being continuously revised upwards [5]. - European electricity demand growth is expected to accelerate to 2.4% from previous lower rates, with data centers contributing a compound annual growth rate of 20% [7]. - In the Middle East, the electricity generation mix is shifting towards gas and solar, with ambitious renewable energy targets set for 2030 [9]. Energy Storage - The U.S. energy storage market is projected to see a supply-demand imbalance in 2026-2027, with new installations expected to exceed 120 GWh [26]. - Companies are raising their forecasts for global and North American energy storage demand, predicting 510 GWh and 150 GWh respectively by 2028 [27]. - Tesla's energy storage business is showing strong growth, with significant increases in shipments and revenue [31]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward price pressure due to supply shortages and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [39][48]. - Global lithium production is projected to grow, but demand is expected to outpace supply by 2026, leading to potential price increases [48]. Power Equipment - The U.S. transformer market is experiencing a shortage, with a significant portion of equipment needing replacement in the coming years [51]. - There is a positive outlook for Chinese power equipment exports to Europe and the Middle East, driven by increasing capital expenditures in these regions [55][56]. - Companies like Eaton and Hitachi are reporting strong order growth in their electrical businesses, indicating robust demand in the power equipment sector [66][69].