集运早报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, the future price depends on the spot market. With high运力 and good demand, it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of the freight rate in January and the subsequent price - decline rhythm. At the current position, it's not recommended to enter the market [3]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Under the long - term logic of expected route resumption and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2602 contract closed at 1795.1, down 1.53%; EC2604 at 1160.2, down 0.83%; EC2606 at 1370.0, down 0.29%; EC2608 at 1500.1, up 0.16%; EC2610 at 1056.0, up 0.12% [2]. - Open Interest Changes: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 2582; EC2604 increased by 44; EC2606 decreased by 1249; EC2608 decreased by 10; EC2610 increased by 72 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 decreased by 18.1 compared to the previous day and 70.1 compared to the previous week; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 decreased by 5.7 compared to the previous day and 56.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Spot Market Data - Spot Indexes: The SCEIS SCFI (European Line) increased by 9.66% on December 29, 2025, and 10.24% on December 26, 2025; the CCFI increased by 3.06% on December 26, 2025; the NCFI increased by 7.22% on December 26, 2025 [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: In Week 1, the central price was 1950 US dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures market; in Week 2, MSK kept the price at 2500 US dollars, with the price at Hamburg Port increasing by 100 to 2600 US dollars; in Week 3, MSK's opening price increased by 100 to 2600 US dollars [4]. Related News - On December 31, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that Iran will not give up peaceful nuclear technology and can reach a fair agreement through serious negotiations with the condition of lifting sanctions; Israel's Prime Minister claimed that Iran is resuming ballistic missile production [5]