芳烃橡胶早报-20251231

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA partial devices have short - stops, the start - up rate decreases slightly, the polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee recovers significantly. However, after the PX price strengthens, the downstream filament profit decreases sharply, and the probability of accelerated production reduction increases. The short - term upward space of PX may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream to pass on the price [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic devices increase the load, the start - up rate rises month - on - month, the overseas maintenance plan increases, the port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, and the basis is weak. The overall pattern is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increases slightly, the production and sales improve month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The demand side shows a decline in the start - up rate of polyester yarn, and the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are both reduced month - on - month. Although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the further weakening space is limited due to the low absolute inventory, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the Thai stage price is stable, and the strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device increases the load, and Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device restarts. The near - end TA partial devices have short - stops [1]. - Market Situation: The polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee recovers significantly. The domestic start - up rate of PX remains stable, the overseas load rises, the PXN strengthens significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits both increase to a relatively high level, while the US - Asia aromatics spread shrinks [1]. - Outlook: After the PX price strengthens, the downstream filament profit decreases sharply, and the probability of accelerated production reduction increases. The short - term upward space of PX may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream to pass on the price [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Zheng Dakai's 600,000 - ton device restarts, and Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device increases the load [1]. - Market Situation: The near - end domestic devices increase the load, the start - up rate rises month - on - month, the overseas maintenance plan increases, the port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, the basis is weak, and the coal - based profit fluctuates at a low level [1]. - Outlook: The domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, the overseas maintenance increases month - on - month, the overall inventory accumulation continues, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang increases the load, and the start - up rate slightly increases to 96.2% [1]. - Market Situation: The production and sales improve month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn drops, the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are both reduced month - on - month, and the profit decreases month - on - month [1]. - Outlook: Although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the further weakening space is limited due to the low absolute inventory, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: There are daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Shanghai 3L rubber, etc. Some indicators like the basis and spread also change [1]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and the Thai stage price is stable [1]. - Strategy: The strategy is to wait and see [1]. Styrene - related Products - Price and Profit Changes: There are daily changes in the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products. The domestic profits of PS, ABS, etc., also change [1]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS show different trends [1].