农产品早报-20251231

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2160, while prices in other regions fluctuated slightly, with a 10 increase in Shekou. The basis increased by 19, and trade profit and import profit increased by 10 and 33 respectively. [3] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2750 and 2800 respectively. The basis increased by 9, and processing profit remained unchanged. [3] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short term, the market sentiment is affected by the targeted auction policy, and the price in the southern port has回调. However, due to the strong price - holding intention of farmers in the producing areas, the supply of circulating grain is limited, and the spot price in the producing areas is firm. After the New Year's Day, the downstream may enter the seasonal restocking stage, which may drive up the corn price. In the long term, attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic auction policy. [4] - Starch: In the short term, due to the decline in downstream restocking enthusiasm, the de - stocking speed of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and the starch price is still weak. After the New Year's Day, supported by the year - end stocking season, the starch price is expected to rise slightly. In the long term, attention should be paid to the downstream consumption rhythm. [4] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, while the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis decreased by 5, and the Zhengzhou futures price increased by 170. [5][6] Market Analysis - In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures price can be determined by domestic sugar production cost and spot price. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the cost of duty - paid imports. Weather risks and policy changes should be monitored. [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - Cotton prices showed an upward trend, with a 40 increase in the 3128 variety. Import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. [21] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and the positive result of the Sino - US Fusan talk, the demand for cotton is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions. [9] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in most regions fluctuated slightly, with a 0.06 decrease in Hubei. The basis decreased by 34. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, while the prices of yellow - feather broilers and pigs increased slightly. [13] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens more quickly, it will accelerate the de - stocking process. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull a batch of 400 - day - old chickens, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter. [13] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - Apple prices in Shandong 80 first - and second - grade remained stable at 8900.00. The national inventory decreased by 71.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 37.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 67.00. [19][20] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. The price of high - quality apples is stable, while the price of ordinary and lower - quality apples has weakened. The sales in the consumer market are slow, and the de - stocking speed is lower than that of last year. Affected by competing fruits, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. [20] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in most regions increased, with a 0.05 increase in Henan Kaifeng, a 0.20 increase in Shandong Linyi, etc. The basis decreased by 25.00. [20] Market Analysis - The spot price of pigs increased significantly over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity de - stocking has improved the long - term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies. [20]