建信期货油脂日报-20251231

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and regard it as a rebound for now. Rapeseed oil has the largest increase in the near - term due to continuous destocking, concentrated cargo rights, and strong basis quotes. The estimated decline in domestic soybean crushing volume in Q1 will lead to a stronger basis for soybean oil, and the futures price has strong support at 7,800 - 8,000. For palm oil, the production decline in December has been confirmed, and the export volume from December 1 to 25 in Malaysia increased by 1.6% - 3.0% month - on - month. However, due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is hard to sustain, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 9,000 [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - P2605: Opened at 8,504, closed at 8,658, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 358,771 and an open interest of 388,850, a decrease of 119 [7] - P2601: Opened at 8,520, closed at 8,646, up 1.34% with a trading volume of 7,236 and an open interest of 6,178, a decrease of 4,169 [7] - Y2605: Opened at 7,802, closed at 7,878, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 209,400 and an open interest of 619,542, a decrease of 16,826 [7] - Y2601: Opened at 8,046, closed at 8,150, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 6,782 and an open interest of 7,670, a decrease of 5,927 [7] - O1605: Opened at 9,036, closed at 9,086, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 195,918 and an open interest of 199,248, an increase of 7,865 [7] - Ol601: Opened at 9,662, closed at 9,714, up 2.50% with a trading volume of 3,475 and an open interest of 7,412, a decrease of 1,062 [7] - Basis Price: - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: 05 + 800 in January - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis: Spot: Y05 + 510; February - March: Y2605 + 480; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300. Grade 3 soybean oil: 05 + 450, green soybean oil: 05 + 300 - Dongguan palm oil quotes: 18 - degree: 05 + 200 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree: 05 + 170 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree: 05 + 70 (Dongguan and Guangzhou warehouses), 28 - degree: 05 + 50 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] 3.2 Industry News - Argentina Weather: A US meteorologist said that Argentina may face drought in January, especially during La Nina. Reduced rainfall from late January to February may cut soybean production, depending on temperature forecasts. So far, the weather in Argentina has been good, and crop growth is better than normal, but concerns may intensify in January [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that from December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, with a 11.66% decline in Peninsular Malaysia, 2.12% in Sabah, 0.75% in Sarawak, and 1.73% in East Malaysia [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: - ITS data showed that from December 1 - 25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from November 1 - 25. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same period last month [9][10] - AmSpec data showed a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons - SGS data showed a 41.0% increase to 824,276 tons [18] 3.3 Data Overview - Domestic Imported Soybean Inventory: As of the end of Week 52 in 2025, the total inventory was 6.847 million tons, a decrease of 0.875 million tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 5.818 million tons, a decrease of 0.887 million tons from the previous week [18]