建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251231

Report Overview - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The spot price of eggs has been stable in recent days after rising before the New Year's Day. The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the main contract is gradually shifting to 03. The near - month contracts are significantly reducing positions. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the current oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. The far - month contracts are generally bullish due to the logic of production capacity reduction, and the strategy is to make rolling operations after a decline [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For egg futures, the 2601 contract closed at 3072 with a 0.03% increase, trading 12,547 lots and having a position of 21,414 with a decrease of 22,102; the 2602 contract closed at 2938 with a 0.03% decrease, trading 122,709 lots and having a position of 128,794 with a decrease of 13,173; the 2603 contract closed at 2962 with a 0.34% decrease, trading 115,703 lots and having a position of 208,380 with an increase of 10,677. The average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.24 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [7][8] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, mainly focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. For far - month contracts, adopt a strategy of rolling operations after a decline [8] 2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. The year - on - year increase was 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - Replenishment: In November 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but a significant 13.5% decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] - Culling Volume: The culling volume has been decreasing recently. From the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [9] - Culling Age: As of December 18, the average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of eggs in December, the basis of the 12 - contract eggs, the 12 - 02 spread of eggs, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the layer farming profit. The data sources are Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Investment Center, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][12][17]