建信期货棉花日报-20251231

Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly year-on-year, the overall supply pressure is not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sales smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure is also not strong. The rumor about the decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season has been confirmed, but the actual decline is still awaited. Downstream spinning mills' operation rate has decreased slightly, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large. The market is waiting for the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling situation. In the short term, the bullish sentiment has been released, and it will mainly show a contracting and oscillating trend approaching the holiday [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a contracting and oscillating trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton of 41 - 31 grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes for machine - picked 31 - grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 in Kashgar were CF05 + 800 - 900, and those in Beijiang were mostly above 1,000, with a small amount below 1,000. The low - basis quotes for 41 - grade were mainly between 900 - 1,000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand and good sales of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price increase of some conventional products in the inland was limited, and the downstream market was resistant to price increases. Most spinning mills were still fulfilling previous orders. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market were still dull, and it was difficult to raise the fabric prices. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7] 3.2 Industry News - According to Conab, as of December 27, the cotton planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% last week, 25.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15.6% [9] - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, near the end of the year, the purchase of cotton seeds in Xinjiang had ended, while there was still a small amount of sales in the inland. The purchase price remained stable between 6.2 - 7.2 yuan/kg. As of December 28, a total of 1,088 cotton processing enterprises had undergone notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1,013 processing enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 processing enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [14][17][20]