建信期货工业硅日报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of industrial silicon remains in a loose pattern, and the fundamental single - side driving force is still limited. The spot price has a slight increase with a stable center, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate around the spot price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price rose first and then fell. The SI2605 contract price was 8915 yuan/ton, with a 1.08% increase. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots, with a net decrease of 4,845 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,678 lots, and the short positions had a net decrease of 6,136 lots [4] - The spot price was slightly adjusted upwards. The Sichuan 553 price was 9,300 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8,950 yuan/ton; the Sichuan 421 price was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9,550 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,550 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Outlook - The expected monthly output in December is about 360,000 tons, and the weekly output is at a seasonal low. Short - term maintenance of northwest devices has led to a slight increase in the spot price. On the demand side, the weekly operating load rate of silicone monomers is 69.2%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from last week; the weekly output of polysilicon remains at 26,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [4] 3.3 Market News - On December 30th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZEE was 10,027 lots, an increase of 120 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In the 4th week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a 1.30% decrease week - on - week and a 24.08% increase year - on - year [5] - In the 4th week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a 1.68% increase week - on - week and a 9.35% increase year - on - year [5] - The polysilicon quotation's upward exploration differs from actual transactions. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and it is expected that the spot transaction price of polysilicon will likely remain stable in the short term [5]