贵金属期现日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, as funds quickly exit the market, the sharp decline in the market sentiment requires time to recover. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The market may focus on US economic data and Fed policies. It is suggested that long - positions be configured at low prices after the Chinese New Year [1]. - The financial and industrial attributes continue to boost the physical demand for silver. The tight inventory situation may not be truly alleviated, making the silver price strong. With the possible callback brought by the CME commodity index rebalancing, it is recommended to close or lock positions before the New Year's Day and wait for a suitable allocation window after the New Year [1]. - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. With the promotion of funds, value reshaping is expected, and they are expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, due to the early stage of the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the overall position liquidity in the domestic market needs to be improved. The domestic market shows a premium compared to the overseas market. As regulatory authorities strengthen risk - control measures, long - positions may take profits at high prices when they have accumulated large profits, leading to large short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 984.84 yuan/gram on December 30, down 22.34 yuan or 2.22% from December 29 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18140 yuan/kg on December 30, down 65 yuan or 0.36% from December 29 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 589.85 yuan/gram on December 30, down 44.50 yuan or 7.02% from December 29 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 447.45 yuan on December 30, down 46.65 yuan or 9.44% from December 29 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4352.30 on December 30, up 2.10 or 0.05% from December 29 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 76.02 on December 30, up 4.38 or 6.11% from December 29 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2220.00 on December 30, up 81.10 or 3.79% from December 29 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1685.50 on December 30, down 10.00 or 0.59% from December 29 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4340.13 on December 30, up 8.17 or 0.19% from December 29 [1]. - London silver was at 76.21 on December 30, up 4.09 or 5.67% from December 29 [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2226.00 on December 30, up 46.00 or 2.11% from December 29 [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1660.00 on December 30, up 12.00 or 0.73% from December 29 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 982.20 yuan/gram on December 30, down 22.74 yuan or 2.26% from December 29 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18119 yuan/kg on December 30, down 678 yuan or 3.61% from December 29 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 565 yuan/gram on December 30, down 72 yuan or 11.31% from December 29 [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 2.64, down 0.40 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 57.80% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 21, down 613 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 44.50% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 12.17, up 6.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 66.40% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.20, down 0.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.20% [1]. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.26, down 3.47 or 5.71% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 54.29, down 1.03 or 1.87% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32, up 0.06 or 4.41% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.32, up 0.03 or 2.68% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14%, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.45%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90%, unchanged from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.22, up 0.22 or 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9923, down 0.0057 or 0.08% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97704 kg, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 755754, down 40985 or 5.14% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36255525, up 32151 or 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 448830611, down 296985 or 0.07% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19361515 ounces, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127624307, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1072, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16455 tons, up 149.46 or 0.92% from the previous value [1].