纯碱、玻璃日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current decline in soda ash production continues, but the overall industry fluctuation is limited, and the supply pressure has not been significantly alleviated. Although demand has improved to some extent, it remains weak. With the end of subsequent maintenance, supply is expected to gradually recover, and inventory still faces accumulation pressure. The supply - demand pattern in the float glass market is weak, with only small - scale restocking, and the terminal real estate industry has not shown substantial improvement. In the short term, the price of soda ash still faces suppression around 1200 yuan and may rise and then fall. For glass, the market weakness persists, with continuous supply - side pressure, seasonal weakening of demand, high overall inventory, and slow follow - up of terminal demand. The contradiction between high inventory and weak demand restricts the market, and the short - term market is still under pressure [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 30, 2025, the main soda ash contract SA605 rebounded significantly, closing at 1213 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.19% from the previous day, with a reduction of 38,262 lots in positions during the day. This week, soda ash production was 721,000 tons, a 1.9% decrease from the previous week. The heavy and light soda ash production decreased by 8,000 tons and 7,000 tons respectively. The shipment rate was 108.54%, a 9.2% increase from the previous week. The total factory inventory was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from last week, but the light soda ash inventory increased slightly. The daily production of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained at 155,000 tons and 88,700 tons respectively, basically unchanged from the previous week. It is recommended to be cautious about the current rebound and continue to pay attention to subsequent supply - demand marginal changes and relevant policy guidance [7][8] Glass - On December 30, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 showed a bottom - hunting and rebound oscillating trend. The glass market weakness continues, with continuous supply - side pressure, high capacity utilization, and seasonal weakening of demand due to the off - season in the construction industry. The overall inventory is still high, with obvious regional differentiation. Terminal demand follows up slowly, and market sentiment is cautious. The short - term market is still under pressure, and it is necessary to continuously pay attention to subsequent supply - demand marginal changes and policy trends [9][10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20]