建信期货铝日报-20251231

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price: On the 30th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The main contract 2602 closed at 22,565, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous day. The total position decreased by more than 22,000 lots to 655,000 lots [7]. - Spot Premium: Affected by the year - end settlement of enterprises, the trading sentiment in East China weakened, and the market liquidity was generally low. The spot premium was still under pressure. The discount in East China was - 310, in Central China was - 330, and in South China was - 320 [7]. - Supply: The domestic aluminum industry maintained a high - profit level, and the domestic operating capacity increased steadily but slightly under the stimulation of high profits. The supply pressure was generally limited due to the production capacity ceiling. Overseas, attention should be paid to the production reduction risk of Mozambique aluminum plants and the progress of Indonesia's capacity expansion [7]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was further weakened by environmental protection restrictions and high aluminum prices, and the inventory showed an inflection point of accumulation [7]. - Price Outlook: In the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to loose liquidity and the strong performance of the gold and copper sectors. In the short term, the probability of high - level adjustment increases due to the fluctuating macro - atmosphere and limited fundamental drivers. It is advisable to control risks with light positions during the holiday [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Aluminum Substitution for Copper: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum substitution for copper" series of standards. Some brands plan to launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no such plan [10]. - Company Capacity Expansion: Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third factory in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. New high - performance aluminum alloy material projects in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10][11]. - Mining Plan: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [11]. - Automobile Industry: In the first 11 months, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [11]