原油成品油早报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - During the Christmas holiday, trading volume in the overseas market was light, and crude oil prices fell on Friday night. The market is focused on geopolitical situations. Iran claims to have more powerful weapons and warns Israel and the US not to launch attacks. EIA weekly reports and ARA inventories have suspended updates. Global oil inventories are being depleted, while Singapore's oil inventories are increasing. Gasoline and diesel cracks are oscillating weakly, with a large fundamental surplus. If geopolitical risks decline, the surplus in the first quarter will be four times the seasonal level. In the short - term, monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From December 24 to December 30, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by -$0.13, BRENT by -$0.61, and DUBAI remained unchanged at $0.00. Other price differentials and related products also showed various changes, such as a -$0.15 change in BRENT 1 - 2 month spread and a $0.58 change in NYMEX RBOB [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran is resuming ballistic missile production. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 26 was 174.7 million barrels, against an expected -230 million barrels and a previous value of 239.1 million barrels. API gasoline inventory was 624.8 million barrels, against an expected 155 million barrels and a previous value of 109 million barrels. API精炼油 inventory was 97.7 million barrels, against an expected 175 million barrels and a previous value of 68.5 million barrels. - Some Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts early next year. - Zelensky denied the claim of a breakdown in talks, stating that the dialogue with the US continues daily. He is negotiating with US President Trump about deploying US troops to Ukraine, and hopes Trump can visit Ukraine [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory - EIA report: US crude oil exports in the week ending December 19 decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production in the week ending December 19 decreased by 0.018 million barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 0.405 million barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the week ending December 19 increased by 0.8 million barrels to 413 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. - US crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves in the week ending December 19 were 6.086 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.439 million barrels per day from the previous week [4][5][18].