瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251231

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market fluctuated strongly this week. Although there was no significant change in actual export volume, market sentiment was stimulated by export expectations, which drove downstream purchases [6]. - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. It is expected that output will likely increase next week as 3 - 5 shut - down plants may resume production [6]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with a tepid trading atmosphere. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid need, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates slightly [6]. - Due to plant maintenance and the promotion of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week. However, inventories may increase slightly during the New Year's Day holiday due to reduced trading and plant restarts [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1730 - 1800 in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.81% [9]. - As of December 31, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [14]. - As of December 30, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 12381, an increase of 1631 from last week [20]. Group 3: Spot Market - As of December 30, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [26]. - As of December 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of December 30, the urea basis was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of December 31, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of December 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation - As of December 31, China's urea output was 135.91 tons, an increase of 2.57 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.93%. The average daily output was 19.42 tons, an increase of 0.37 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% [40]. - As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 28.26%. As of December 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 101.92 tons, a decrease of 4.97 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.65% [43]. - According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points. The operating rate of enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [49]. - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [49].