瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the natural rubber market declined. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to swap positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber showed no obvious improvement, and most of them were cautious and only made rigid purchases, resulting in weak actual order transactions. In the future, the Yunnan production area in China is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan production area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still in normal tapping, but the dry content of fresh latex is at a low level, and the amount of collectible rubber on the island is limited. Driven by the recovery of production profits, some processing plants have a sentiment of competing for rubber at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory increase rate has narrowed month - on - month. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but the rubber price has risen more than expected, and downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see state for restocking, with weak purchasing sentiment, so the inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted their production schedules flexibly last week, and some enterprises controlled production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises had production suspension or limitation phenomena [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the natural rubber market declined this week. Import rubber traders mainly swapped positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly waited and watched. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber did not improve significantly, and most of them made rigid purchases cautiously, with weak actual order transactions [8]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and in Hainan, the dry content of fresh latex is low, and the collectible rubber amount is limited. Some processing plants are competing for rubber at higher prices due to profit recovery. Qingdao Port's inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has narrowed. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and the overall shipment is slow, with increasing finished product inventory [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15400 - 16000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12400 - 13000 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trend: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The main contract price of No. 20 rubber also fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [11]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber are mentioned [13][15]. - Inter - period Spread: As of December 31, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 60, and the spread between the February and March contracts of No. 20 rubber was - 30 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of December 31, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 100,590 tons, an increase of 6,660 tons compared with last week; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 57,959 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of December 30, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week [28]. - No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of December 30, the basis of No. 20 rubber was 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits: As of December 30, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.1 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of December 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton compared with last week [38]. - Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices: As of December 30, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan production area was in the non - tapping period [41]. 3.3.2 Import Situation - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [44]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points [48]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Tire Operating Rate: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [51]. - Tire Exports: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [54]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales): In November 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57].