玉米类市场周报：续涨动能略显不足，玉米期价冲高回落-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose first and then fell this week, with short - term large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch futures prices also rose first and then fell, and are expected to maintain short - term fluctuations [8][10] Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Corn - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [8] - Market Outlook: U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure. However, good export conditions and a downward adjustment of the ending inventory forecast support its price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, farmers are reluctant to sell, and most grain sources are in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have certain inventories, while deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventories and weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the overall grain sales progress is about 40%, and processing enterprises are not willing to replenish stocks at high prices [8] Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated up and down, closing at 2,515 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week [10] - Market Outlook: With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply - side pressure of corn starch remains. As of December 24, the national corn starch inventory increased. However, holiday stocking and the price increase of cassava starch may boost demand [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 1,009,261 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also rose first and then fell, with a total position of 195,489 lots, an increase of 3,391 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 168,889 this week, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 31,610, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 39,395 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,355 lots [29] Spot Price and Basis - As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 125 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton and 2,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 185 yuan/ton [34][39] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 29 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 50 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 289 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, the same as last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of December 30, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2,516.17 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 164.41 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 278,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 827,000 tons, an increase of 143,000 tons week - on - week [49] - As of December 25, the overall domestic corn sales progress was 45%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year. The sales progress in the Northeast was 44%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points from the same period last year [61] - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) compared to the same period last year and 200,000 tons compared to last month [65] - As of December 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.88 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [69] Demand - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.12%) month - on - month [73] - As of December 26, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 130.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 162.8 yuan/head [77] - As of December 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 50 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 399 yuan/ton in Henan, - 767 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 265 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch Supply - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 4.26% [86] - From December 25 - 31, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 631,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 327,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.86%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. As of December 31, the national corn starch inventory was 1.123 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64% [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 31, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 11.32%, a recovery of 1.04% from last week's 10.28%. The implied volatility this week recovered and was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]