碳酸锂市场周报：供需稳定库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price declined with a weekly change of -6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - In 2026, the national subsidy program was officially released, with the first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods. The subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, lithium ore prices rose due to high - level lithium carbonate prices. Lithium salt producers were willing to produce, resulting in a stable increase in domestic supply. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts, and industrial inventories continued to be depleted [7]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of stable supply growth and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate had a weekly decline of 6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%, with a closing price of 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - Macro - environment: The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement was released, with 62.5 billion yuan in the first - batch of funds, and the subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - Fundamentals: Lithium ore prices increased, supply grew steadily, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory continued to be depleted [7]. - Investment Advice: Light - position short - term long positions on dips, with attention to trading rhythms and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The futures price fluctuated weakly. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,140 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 340 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Price: The spot price rose. As of December 31, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,080 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20,140 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,440 US dollars/ton as of December 30, 2025, a weekly increase of 110 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9901, a weekly decrease of 0.55% [24]. - Lithium Mica: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 5,106 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, a weekly increase of 333 yuan/ton. The average price of amblygonite was 14,025 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 800 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 7.64% from October but a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 208.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 249%. The monthly output was 53,980 tons, an increase of 4.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly开工率 was 43%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month and a decrease of 32% year - on - year [36]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: The average price was 180,000 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 5.55% from October and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [39]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The average price was 45,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,300 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 268,890 tons, an increase of 0.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly开工率 was 63%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month and a decrease of 4% year - on - year [42]. - Ternary Materials: The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type continued to strengthen. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from October but a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly开工率 was 51%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month but an increase of 3% year - on - year [47]. - Lithium Manganate: The average price was 45,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 0.87% from October and a year - on - year decrease of 2.67% [52]. - Lithium Cobaltate: The average price was 374,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 27,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 16,050 tons, an increase of 1.65% from October and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [55]. - New - energy Vehicles: As of November 2025, the penetration rate was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly output was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%, and the monthly sales were 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. The cumulative export volume was 2.315 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [57][62]. 3.5 Options Market - Based on the option parity theory, the synthetic underlying asset had a premium of 0.04, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Considering the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a short straddle to short volatility [67].