Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The HC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3300 - 3230. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market volatility has narrowed. Attention should be paid to market changes and risk control [8] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Price - As of the close on December 31, the futures price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [6] 1.2 Production - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 293.54 million tons (+1.63 million tons week - on - week, -13.6 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.3 Demand - Apparent demand increased. The current period's apparent demand was 307.04 million tons (+8.76 million tons week - on - week, +4.32 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.4 Inventory - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 377.22 million tons (-13.5 million tons week - on - week, +70.14 million tons year - on - year) [6] 1.5 Profit Margin - The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.55 percentage points from the same period last year [6] 1.6 Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed a split among officials on interest rate cuts. Domestically, in December, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all entered the expansion range. In 2026, the national subsidy plan was officially released, and the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds was allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [8] - Cost - aspect: Iron ore ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation, and steel mills' inventories were relatively low, with expectations of stockpiling in the later period, supporting the futures price. Coking coal inventory continued to increase, but the inventory growth rate might decline. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the coal - coke futures price was expected to fluctuate within a range and be slightly bullish [8] - Technical - aspect: The HC2605 contract was range - bound, with the futures price under pressure at the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running near the 0 axis, and the red bars were relatively stable [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract was range - bound and weaker than the HC2610 contract. On the 31st, the price difference was -23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [14] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions - On December 31, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 132,188 tons week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased by 18,204 lots to 12,880 lots [20] 2.3 Spot Price - On December 31, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3291 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weaker than the futures price. On the 31st, the basis was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [24] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On December 31, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] 3.2 Ore Arrival and Shipment - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3677.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3059.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2727.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2601.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1330.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74.2 million tons [36] 3.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 16619.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 282.65 million tons to 7174.26 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 93.50 million tons to 6118.56 million tons; the inventory of traded ore increased by 304.95 million tons to 10781.61 million tons. On December 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 118.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.44 million tons [40] 3.4 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 70.35%, a decrease of 0.15%. The daily coke output was 49.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons; the coke inventory was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 1.76 million tons; the total coking coal inventory was 883.20 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons; the available days of coking coal were 13.5 days, an increase of 0.06 days [44] 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply - side - Steel Export: In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [48] - Hot - rolled Coil Production: On December 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. On December 25, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils from 37 production enterprises was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36 million tons [51] - Hot - rolled Coil Inventory: On December 25, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils from 37 production enterprises was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18,000 tons. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6996 million tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7014 million tons [56] 4.2 Demand - side - Automobile: In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% [59] - Home Appliances: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household refrigerators was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%; the production of household washing machines was 113.097 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [59]
热轧卷板市场周报：市场观望情绪增强，热卷期价区间整理-20251231
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 09:09