白糖市场周报-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, as of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64% [5]. - Market Outlook: Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. The market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: This week, the price of the US Sugar March contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 2.04%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 159,080 lots, an increase of 4,167 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 316,729 lots, a decrease of 20,746 lots from the previous week [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.93 cents per pound, an increase of 0.38 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 62,287 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 5,182. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 159 yuan per ton [17][23][27]. - Spot Market: As of December 31, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton. This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 46 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,108 yuan per ton, an increase of 57 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was - 16 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week [33][39]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.11621 billion tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: No specific data provided in the text. - Supply Side - Import Volume: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [48]. - Demand Side - Sales Rate: No specific data provided in the text. - Demand Side - Production Volume: In November 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [56]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - Options Market: No specific data provided in the text. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: Only the historical PE ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, with no specific data analysis [62].