铝类市场周报：需求转淡VS宏观向好，铝类或将震荡运行-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6] - For Alumina main contract, conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - For Cast Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] - Given that the aluminum price will oscillate in the future and volatility may converge, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [75] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: Raw material alumina price is low, smelting profit of aluminum plants is good, and overall start - up is active. Supply increases steadily but increment is small. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory accumulates slightly. Aluminum price remains high and oscillates due to positive macro - expectations [6] - Alumina: Raw material bauxite price is stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Supply may gradually decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and stable demand [7] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but there is pressure to reduce production. Demand is weak in the off - season, and spot market transactions are light. It is in a stage of decreasing supply and weakening demand [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Trends: As of December 31, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 22,950 yuan/ton, up 3.12% from December 24; LME Aluminum closed at 2,986.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.41% from December 22. Alumina futures price was 2,602 yuan/ton, up 2.12%; Cast Aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, up 1.75% [12][16] - Ratio and Spread: As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.54, down 0.31 from December 24. Aluminum - zinc futures spread was 350 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton; Copper - aluminum futures spread was 75,315 yuan/ton, up 1,545 yuan/ton [13][22] - Inventory and Position: As of December 31, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum position was 665,773 lots, up 0.54%; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, up 15,645 lots [19] - Spot Market: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi and Guiyang decreased. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 2.28%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 2.18%, and the spot discount was 220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [27][30] 3.3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of December 30, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 1.03%; as of December 26, SHFE inventory increased 6.64%; as of December 29, domestic social inventory increased 9.68%. As of December 31, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased 6.85%; as of December 30, LME registered warehouse receipts increased 0.38% [34] - Bauxite: The import volume in November 2025 was 15.109 million tons, up 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port inventory was 26.19 million tons, up 30,000 tons month - on - month [38] - Scrap Aluminum: The price in Shandong increased 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import volume in November 2025 was 162,756.17 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export volume was 71.53 tons, down 1.7% year - on - year [44] - Alumina: The output in November 2025 was 8.138 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. The import volume was 232,400 tons, up 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year; the export volume was 170,000 tons, down 5.56% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year [47] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume in November 2025 was 146,100 tons, down 2.79% year - on - year. The output in November was 3.792 million tons, up 2.5% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, with no change month - on - month and up 1.13% year - on - year [50][54] - Aluminum Products: The output in November 2025 was 5.931 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 240,000 tons, down 14% year - on - year; the export volume was 570,000 tons, down 14.8% year - on - year [58] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The built - in capacity in November 2025 was 1.26 million tons, up 15.96% year - on - year. The output was 700,000 tons, up 7.12% year - on - year [61] - Aluminum Alloy: The output in November 2025 was 1.739 million tons, up 17% year - on - year. The import volume was 73,200 tons, down 28.2% year - on - year; the export volume was 30,600 tons, up 51.56% year - on - year [64] - Real Estate: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased 20.58% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased 17.58% year - on - year [67] - Infrastructure and Automobiles: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, automobile sales were 3,428,998 units, up 3.4% year - on - year; production was 3,531,579 units, up 2.76% year - on - year [70] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - Given the future oscillatory movement of aluminum price and possible convergence of volatility, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [75]