鸡蛋市场周报：高存栏持续牵制，期价反弹动能有限-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed lower. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - The market is caught between weak current conditions and strong future expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones due to the anticipated decline in production capacity, and investors can consider lightly going long on far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The egg market oscillated and closed lower this week. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: Losses in the breeding sector have led to reduced replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the culling of old hens. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. Low spot prices and continued losses for breeders have dampened replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, New Year's Day stocking has started, increasing demand and boosting spot prices. The high inventory of laying hens is still constraining the performance of near - term market prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures March contract oscillated and closed lower, with an open interest of 211,240 lots, an increase of 20,607 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 45,394, showing little change in net short positions compared to last week [12]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3076 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 104 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was + 125 yuan per ton [22]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The egg 3 - 5 spread was reported at - 557 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [26]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of December 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.73 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 5.63 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - side Indicators: As of November 30, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%, and the national new chick index was 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - Laying Hen Culling: As of November 30, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%, and the average age of culled hens was 500 days [43]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2351.76 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3120 yuan per ton [47]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of December 26, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.8 yuan per kilogram [53]. - Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 7.74 yuan per kilogram [58]. - Egg Monthly Exports: In November 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,045.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.13% (an increase of 1091.86 tons compared to the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 349.02 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4. Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: Information about the company's price - earnings ratio change is provided, but no detailed analysis is given [65].