铁矿石市场周报：库存增加、现货坚挺铁矿期价重心上移-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions have listed tasks for 2026, and more incremental policies will be introduced. Industrially, at the end of the year, there are more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills, molten iron production is running at a low level, port inventories continue to increase, but factory inventories are low, and there is an expectation of winter storage in the future. The firm spot price of iron ore supports the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions on the I2605 contract on pullbacks, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control. [7] - Due to the continuous increase in port inventories but low factory inventories, there is an expectation of stockpiling in the future, and the spot price of iron ore is firm. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract on pullbacks. [55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on December 31, the price of the main iron ore contract was 789.5 (+6.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 849 (+12) yuan/dry ton. [5] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons. [5] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 27.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.624 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.014 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.453 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.306 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.742 million tons. [5] - The daily average molten iron production was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. [5] - As of December 26, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.239 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.8393 million tons. [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points. [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. Some participants said that according to their economic outlook, after the interest rate cut at this meeting, the target interest rate range may need to remain unchanged for some time. Domestically, in December, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and all three indexes rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. [7] - Supply - demand aspect: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this period, the arrival volume declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills continued to decline, the molten iron production remained around 2.25 million tons per week, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. [7] - Technical aspect: The I2605 iron ore contract fluctuated strongly, the center of the daily K - line moved up, and the moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 - axis, and the red bars were stable. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2605 contract was weaker than the I2609 contract. On the 31st, the price difference was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton. [12] - On December 31, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,300 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18,666 lots, an increase of 15,554 lots compared with the previous week. [19] - On December 31, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 31st, the basis was 59 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 27.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.624 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.014 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.453 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.306 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.742 million tons. [28] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2876 million tons, an increase of 0.0053 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 71.7426 million tons, an increase of 2.8265 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 61.1856 million tons, a decrease of 0.935 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 107.8161 million tons, an increase of 3.0495 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8004 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0051 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.64 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 days. [33] - As of December 31, the average available inventory days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day. On December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877, a week - on - week decrease of 146. [38] - According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 0.769 million tons from 111.309 million tons in October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from the previous period; the daily average output of refined powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons. [41] - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic iron mines was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3%. [44] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. In November 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.98 million tons, an increase of 0.198 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decrease to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. [47] - On December 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. [50] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the continuous increase in port inventories but low factory inventories, there is an expectation of stockpiling in the future, and the spot price of iron ore is firm. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract on pullbacks. [55]