2025年12月PMI点评：供需两端发力，PMI超预期回升

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range above the boom - bust line and indicating a positive signal of stabilizing and rising manufacturing prosperity [3][8]. - The supply and demand sides improved synergistically. The production index was 51.7% in December, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points. The new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing had strong momentum and provided structural support [3][9]. - Inventory is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and the purchase price index declined slightly. The raw material inventory index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 48.2%. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [12][13]. - The rebound of PMI is expected to be the starting point for the rebound of the nominal GDP growth rate in 2026. With policy support, improved expectations, and the accumulation of internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the December PMI. The manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [2][7] 12 - month Manufacturing PMI Rebound - The December PMI of 50.1% was significantly higher than the market expectation of 49.6%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April 2025. It was a counter - seasonal rebound, and its signal and continuity are worthy of attention [3][8] Supply - Demand Synergy Improvement - In terms of production, the December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points. In terms of demand, the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, and the new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries showed strong momentum [3][9] Inventory and Purchase Price - The raw material inventory index rose to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose to 48.2%, still in the passive replenishment stage but showing marginal improvement. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points. The anti - involution policy's price - pulling effect may shift to mid - stream manufacturing [12][13] PMI Rebound and Economic Outlook - The rebound of PMI in December is expected to be the starting point for the marginal improvement of the economy in 2026. With the joint action of policies, expectations, and internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]