软商品日报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The global sugar supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. With India's export quota being lower than expected and low export possibility, Brazil's sugar production decreasing year - on - year but exports increasing, and Thailand's sugarcane suffering from diseases and farmers switching to cassava, short - term upward pressure on sugar prices has increased, and the price maintains an equilibrium [3]. - Cotton: In the short term, the market is dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next - year's production. However, due to uncertainties in the new - season target price subsidy policy, slow yarn sales, and expanding domestic - foreign cotton price differences, there is a need to guard against short - term cotton price corrections. In the medium - to - long - term, cotton prices may still rise if supply expectations remain unchanged [13]. - Apples: The overall transaction of late Fuji inventory is slow, with trading mainly on a need - to - basis. Different regions have different sales situations, such as Gansu focusing on packaging and shipping, Shaanxi having a weak sales atmosphere, and Shandong mainly exporting small fruits [17]. - Red Dates: The current new jujube harvest is basically completed. In the short term, jujube prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply of new - year jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On December 31, 2025, SR01 closed at 5264 with a daily decline of 0.13% and a weekly decline of 2.37%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - Basis: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on December 30, 2025, was 89, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 75. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 51, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 15. Other contracts also had corresponding basis data [8]. - Import Prices: On December 31, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4049, with a daily decline of 97 and a weekly decline of 54. The out - of - quota price was 5129, with a daily decline of 127 and a weekly decline of 70. Similar data was provided for Thai sugar imports [11]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On the reporting date, Cotton 01 closed at 14655, up 45 (0.31%); Cotton 05 closed at 14585, up 25 (0.17%); Cotton 09 closed at 14760, up 30 (0.2%); Yarn 01 closed at 20475, up 350 (1.74%); Yarn 05 closed at 20595, down 45 (- 0.22%); Yarn 09 closed at 20660, down 100% [14]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 983, unchanged; Cotton 01 - 05 was 50, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 was - 170, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 was 120, unchanged; The flower - yarn spread was 6035, unchanged; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2621, up 12; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 70, unchanged [14]. Apples - Futures and Spot Prices: On December 31, 2025, AP01 closed at 9950, up 3.02% (weekly increase of 2.96%); AP03 closed at 9300, down 0.16% (weekly increase of 0.5%); etc. The spot prices of different varieties in different regions remained stable [18]. - Spreads and Other Data: AP01 - 05 was 458, up 8.02% (weekly increase of 9.31%); the main contract basis was 41, down 224.24% (weekly decline of 119.62%); the delivery theoretical price was 9200, up 2.22% [18]. Red Dates No specific futures or spot price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price will be under pressure due to loose supply [26].