2026年宏观资配展望：识变、应变

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, although the growth rate is likely to slow down, with stronger certainty in the first half of the year [5] - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in high-growth and high-dividend sectors, as a broad market rally may be difficult to achieve [5] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to experience strong fluctuations in the first half of 2026, with potential volatility increasing in the second half due to changes in IPO financing and interest rate expectations [5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is expected to maintain a positive trend, although there may be fluctuations around mid-2026 due to uncertainties related to the midterm elections [5] - The report notes that the U.S. economy is projected to remain robust, supported by the "big beautiful bill" which is expected to enhance corporate returns [5] - Despite potential market volatility due to election uncertainties, the overall outlook for the U.S. stock market remains optimistic, bolstered by a weak dollar and continued liquidity [5] Group 3 - The report states that the domestic bond market is likely to experience fluctuations in the first half of 2026, with a slight decrease in the interest rate center expected in the second half due to increased economic downward pressure [5] - The report anticipates that the gold price will continue its upward trend, although the overall increase may be slower compared to 2025 [5] - The report indicates that the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable and slightly stronger in the first half of 2026, with increased volatility anticipated in the second half as the Fed halts rate cuts [5]