建信期货钢材日评-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The news factor may cause the steel price to turn from strong to weak recently, but there is still support from the fundamentals. It is expected that the market will first decline and then rise, and the overall trend will be range - bound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On December 30, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2605 generally rose first and then fell. The rebar futures contract RB2605 closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 closed at 3282 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the stainless - steel futures contract SS2602 closed at 13090 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [5]. - In the spot market, on December 30, the prices of major rebar spot markets were basically stable, while the prices of individual hot - rolled coil spot markets fluctuated. The hot - rolled coil prices in Hefei and Fuzhou markets rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Lecong market fell by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of technical indicators, the daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract rose, with the J value turning up and the K and D values continuing to rise; the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract formed a death cross. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2605 contract slightly enlarged for two consecutive trading days, while that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract turned to a slight narrowing [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - News: There are reports that JPMorgan Chase's long - position in silver exceeded regulatory requirements, leading to regulatory intervention. For JPMorgan Chase, taking profits may be the best option. The significant fluctuations in international silver prices have triggered resonance in related metal commodity markets [8]. - Fundamentals: The decline in the output of the five major steel products has significantly narrowed, and the demand has continued to decline slightly. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, the social inventory has continued to decline to a new low since mid - January. On the cost side, the iron ore price has continued to rise to a new high since late February, while the fourth round of price cuts for coke spot is expected to be implemented on New Year's Day. Despite the one - up - one - down situation, the steel cost remains relatively firm [9]. 3.3 Industry News - On December 26, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a regular press conference, reporting on the implementation of the Action Plan for Source Prevention and Control of Soil Pollution, including pollutant reduction in key industries and infrastructure improvement [10]. - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026, including adjustments to import provisional tax rates and the addition of new sub - items [10]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade released the latest economic and trade friction index. In October, the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreased by 7.3% year - on - year but remained at a high level [10]. - On December 26, the expert consultation meeting on the 14th Five - Year Plan for the steel industry was held in Beijing, emphasizing aspects such as减量 development, carbon peaking, standard setting, digital transformation, and product structure adjustment [10]. - On December 29, Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway stated that the expected increase in related transaction amounts in the next three years is due to the decline in coal transportation demand and the expansion of non - coal bulk markets [11]. - China Power signed a new coal supply framework agreement with Huainan Mining on December 29, 2025, with a supply period from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028 [11]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade issued a regulation using the Indonesian coal benchmark price (HBA) as a basis for export reference prices, but the specific implementation time and mechanism of the export tariff policy remain to be determined [11]. - On December 26, Liugang Group's annual output of automotive steel exceeded one million tons, and the annual sales of container plates, die steel, and exported steel also reached one million tons [11]. - On December 26, Ganeng Co., Ltd. announced the transfer of 20% of its shares in Pingxiang Juyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to Jiangxi Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. at a price of 0 yuan [11]. - India's crude oil imports in November increased by 11.1% year - on - year, while petroleum product imports decreased by about 8.6% and exports decreased by 1.7% [11]. - India's coal imports in November 2025 were 19.2658 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.56% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%. From January to November, the total coal imports were 227 million tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous year [11]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and their May contracts. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][17][24][32][33].