镍日报-20251231

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose significantly again, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 134,480 yuan/ton and closing at 132,390 yuan/ton, a increase of 3.86%. The total position increased by 18,000 lots to 346,000 lots. Driven by the news of the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota, the speculation sentiment of funds is still rising, and the fluctuation range of nickel prices has increased [7]. - Driven by the sharp rise in nickel prices, the prices of other products in the industrial chain are also rising. The NPI quotation increased by 2.5 to 914.5 yuan/nickel point on the 30th, which is regarded as a short - term rebound. The nickel salt price increased by 20 to 27,575 yuan/ton, and the short - term price will continue to rise [7]. - Affected by a series of news speculations such as the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota and the revision of the nickel reference price HPM, combined with the amplification of macro and precious metal fluctuations, the speculation sentiment of long - position funds in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to rise before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the speculation sentiment of funds was heating up. The prices of NPI and nickel salt in the industrial chain also increased. The NPI price increase is regarded as a short - term rebound, and the nickel salt price will continue to rise in the short term [7]. - Affected by news speculations and market fluctuations, the long - position funds' speculation sentiment in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will have upward elasticity before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - From January to November, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in the 2026 RKAB to about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons in 2025. The final implementation method is still unclear [10]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement new position limit rules from July next year, covering key contracts such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc futures, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10]